Near-term forecasts of stream temperature using deep learning and data assimilation in support of management decisions

Deep learning (DL) models are increasingly used to make accurate hindcasts of management-relevant variables, but they are less commonly used in forecasting applications. Data assimilation (DA) can be used for forecasts to leverage real-time observations, where the difference between model predictions and observations today is used to adjust the model to make better predictions tomorrow. In this use case, we developed a process-guided DL and DA approach to make 7-day probabilistic forecasts of daily maximum water temperature in the Delaware River Basin in support of water management decisions. Our modeling system produced forecasts of daily maximum water temperature with an average root mean squared error (RMSE) from 1.1 to 1.4°C for 1-day-ahead and 1.4 to 1.9°C for 7-day-ahead forecasts across all sites. The DA algorithm marginally improved forecast performance when compared with forecasts produced using the process-guided DL model alone (0%–14% lower RMSE with the DA algorithm). Across all sites and lead times, 65%–82% of observations were within 90% forecast confidence intervals, which allowed managers to anticipate probability of exceedances of ecologically relevant thresholds and aid in decisions about releasing reservoir water downstream. The flexibility of DL models shows promise for forecasting other important environmental variables and aid in decision-making.     

创新价值链视角下企业创新效率差异及影响因素分析——基于江苏省国家高新区企业的验证

中国经济新常态背景下,高新区企业创新增效提质是增强高新区创新能力的内生动力.从创新价值链视角出发,将企业创新过程分为技术开发阶段和经济转化阶段,运用两阶段DEA模型分别对2016年江苏省12个国家高新区、11个技术领域以及各高新区内不同技术类型企业的整体和分阶段创新效率进行测度,并构建Tobit回归模型探究每个阶段企业创新效率的影响因素.研究表明:(1)江苏省国家高新区整体创新效率有较大提升空间,其中技术开发效率表现优于经济转化效率.(2)高创新效率的技术领域集中在电子与信息、新材料等,生物医药、环境保护和光机电一体化等技术领域整体创新效率处于较低水平.(3)以各阶段创新效率均值为分界,划分创新资源利用的四种模式,大部分高新区企业处于高开发-低转化和低开发-高转化型模式,存在技术创新与经济转化联系不够紧密的现象.(4)资本投入水平、劳动力的“质”和“量”、政府支持力度对企业创新效率的影响存在明显的阶段差异性.最后,根据研究结果,从强化知识交流网络、集聚多元化人才、调整资源投入产出评估方式及采取扬优补短式效率提升路径四个方面给出提升高新区企业创新效率的政策建议.     

常州市春节期间污染物相关性分析

分析了常州市2017年春节前后各污染物浓度的关联性和差异性。结果表明,除O_3外,春节期间各污染物均值均低于春节前后,春节前后随着污染源的变化,污染物之间的相关性表现出较为明显的差异。SO_2与PM_(2.5)、PM_(10)、CO和NO_2的相关性均较春节前后有显著下降;爆竹集中燃放时间段,CO与综合指数、PM_(2.5)和PM_(10)之间的相关系数0.96;而在烟花爆竹燃放相对较少的初三和初四,该相关系数0.6。工业减产停产和机动车使用减少对空气质量改善有较大贡献,而在不利气象条件下,烟花爆竹可导致空气质量在短时间内恶化。     

磷酸改性生物炭-LDHs(Mg-Al-NO3)复合材料对双酚A的吸附

本研究选取油菜秸秆为原料,在600℃下热解得到生物炭和磷酸改性生物炭,并用共沉淀法制备3种改性生物炭-LDHs(Mg-Al-NO_3)复合材料.采用批量吸附法研究不同pH、吸附时间和不同生物炭/LDHs配比条件下复合材料对双酚A的吸附特性,借助XRD、FTIR和BET等测试手段探究了复合材料吸附双酚A的机制.结果表明,改性生物炭-LDHs(Mg-Al-NO_3)复合材料吸附双酚A的吸附平衡时间为4 h,符合准二级动力学方程(R~20.99);复合材料对双酚A的吸附效果稍逊于改性生物炭,改性生物炭在复合材料中所占比重越大,吸附效果越好.当pH值在5.0—9.0范围内变化时,改性生物炭-LDHs(Mg-Al-NO_3)复合材料对双酚A的吸附量呈下降趋势,且在pH=9.0时达到最小值.等温吸附模型数据表明,复合材料用Freundlich等温吸附模型效果更好.通过XRD、BET、FTIR测试研究发现,由于LDHs占据了生物炭表面的活性位点,致使生物炭与双酚A之间的相互作用减弱,降低了复合物的吸附能力.本研究结果初步阐释了改性生物炭-LDHs(Mg-Al-NO_3)复合材料吸附双酚A的机理,为生物炭-LDHs复合材料处理水体中有机污染物的应用提供了借鉴和参考.     

Freshwater stress on small island developing states: population projections and aridity changes at 1.5 and 2 °C

Small island developing states (SIDS) face multiple threats from anthropogenic climate change, including potential changes in freshwater resource availability. Due to a mismatch in spatial scale between SIDS landforms and the horizontal resolution of global climate models (GCMs), SIDS are mostly unaccounted for in GCMs that are used to make future projections of global climate change and its regional impacts. Specific approaches are required to address this gap between broad-scale model projections and regional, policy-relevant outcomes. Here, we apply a recently developed methodology that circumvents the GCM limitation of coarse resolution in order to project future changes in aridity on small islands. These climate projections are combined with independent population projections associated with shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) to evaluate overall changes in freshwater stress in SIDS at warming levels of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. While we find that future population growth will dominate changes in projected freshwater stress especially toward the end of the century, projected changes in aridity are found to compound freshwater stress for the vast majority of SIDS. For several SIDS, particularly across the Caribbean region, a substantial fraction (~?25%) of the large overall freshwater stress projected under 2 °C at 2030 can be avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 °C. Our findings add to a growing body of literature on the difference in climate impacts between 1.5 and 2 °C and underscore the need for regionally specific analysis.     

汽车排放共享检测——以南京市汽油车遥测试验结果为例

以南京市汽油车遥测试验结果为例,对汽油车的单次遥测数据与年检数据进行分析,结果表明,2组数据之间不存在相关性,这可能是由于车速等检测环境的差异造成的。整体遥测值的变化并不会随着年检值的增加或减少而呈现某一趋势,车辆的单次遥测数据并不具有代表性,不能作为车辆是否超标的判定依据。在对汽油车遥测不合格次数、排放限值设定、遥测年检时间间隔等分析中发现,若将汽油车的NO、CO遥测排放限值分别设为2 000×10-6和5%,当汽油车的遥测不合格次数≥5次,或汽油车的遥测不合格次数达到3次,同时这3次的遥测时间距离年检不超过60 d(遥测在前,年检在后),那么在这些遥测不合格车辆中,有80%以上的年检结果也不合格,遥测与年检的检测结果判定较为一致。虽然两者的检测方法和排放标准不同,但都能有效筛选出排放超标车辆,而且遥测法更快速,也无需停车检测,不影响车辆行驶。     

三峡库区消落带农用坡地磷素径流流失特征

消落带是三峡库区重要的生态交错带，但自发农用和无序开发可能会造成更多的氮磷流失，进而加剧三峡库区水体富营养化。通过对库区连续3 a的定位监测（2011~2013年），研究了三峡库区消落带农用坡地的磷素流失特征。结果表明：次降雨事件中常规施肥处理的地表径流、壤中流总磷平均浓度分别为0.848±0.153、0.140±0.006 mg/L，其中地表径流中磷的形态以颗粒态为主，壤中流以溶解态的生物可利用磷为主。常规施肥下，地表径流、壤中流磷素年均流失通量分别为0.236±0.004、0.100±0.003 kg·hm 2，地表径流、壤中流磷素流失通量分别占总流失通量的70.2%、29.8%，地表径流是坡地磷素流失的主要途径，但壤中流也是不可忽视的重要途径。与常规施肥处理相比，减量施肥处理地表径流、壤中流磷素流失量分别降低了45.3%、40.0%。建议采取减量施肥的方式，以降低营养盐负荷，保护水环境。     

Estimating abundance without recaptures of marked pallid sturgeon in the Mississippi River

Abundance estimates are essential for assessing the viability of populations and the risks posed by alternative management actions. An effort to estimate abundance via a repeated mark‐recapture experiment may fail to recapture marked individuals. We devised a method for obtaining lower bounds on abundance in the absence of recaptures for both panmictic and spatially structured populations. The method assumes few enough recaptures were expected to be missed by random chance. The upper Bayesian credible limit on expected recaptures allows probabilistic statements about the minimum number of individuals present in the population. We applied this method to data from a 12‐year survey of pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus) in the lower and middle Mississippi River (U.S.A.). None of the 241 individuals marked was recaptured in the survey. After accounting for survival and movement, our model‐averaged estimate of the total abundance of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old in the study area had a 1%, 5%, or 25% chance of being <4,600, 7,000, or 15,000, respectively. When we assumed fish were distributed in proportion to survey catch per unit effort, the farthest downstream reach in the survey hosted at least 4.5–15 fish per river kilometer (rkm), whereas the remainder of the reaches in the lower and middle Mississippi River hosted at least 2.6–8.5 fish/rkm for all model variations examined. The lower Mississippi River had an average density of pallid sturgeon ≥3 years old of at least 3.0–9.8 fish/rkm. The choice of Bayesian prior was the largest source of uncertainty we considered but did not alter the order of magnitude of lower bounds. Nil‐recapture estimates of abundance are highly uncertain and require careful communication but can deliver insights from experiments that might otherwise be considered a failure.     

The associations of air pollution exposure during pregnancy with fetal growth and anthropometric measurements at birth: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Environmental Science and Pollution Research - Fetal growth has been demonstrated to be an important predictor of perinatal and postnatal health. Although the effects of maternal exposure to air...     

不同气源压缩气体泡沫灭石油醚火灾性能比较

采用实验室压缩气体泡沫系统,通过缩尺油盘火试验,分别考察基于不同气源的压缩气体泡沫对于石油醚火灾的灭火性能,分析探讨适用于低沸点的石油醚类燃料火灾扑救的气源类型和供气方案。结果表明,在泡沫溶液供给强度为2.5 L/(min·m2)的条件下,压缩氮气泡沫和压缩空气泡沫均可扑灭石油醚火灾,具有良好的抗烧性能;二者相比,压缩氮气泡沫比压缩空气泡沫的控灭火性能和抗烧性能均有一定提升;对于石油醚类的低沸点易燃液体火灾,建议采用以氮气作为气源的压缩氮气泡沫系统;该研究可为压缩气体泡沫系统在石油化工行业工程应用提供技术支撑。